Hi there,
“Will the CRS score finally drop below 500 this year?”
We’re seeing this question everywhere – as anxious permanent-resident-hopefuls grapple with historically high cut-offs in the Canadian Experience Class draws sent through Canada’s Express Entry system.
So we dug into the data.
We’ll start with the usual caveat – we don’t know what Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has in store for CEC for the rest of this year. So far, IRCC has not stuck closely to its published target for the in-Canada focus for 2025 (read more on that here).
Based on recent (from July 6th) data from the Express Entry candidate pool, here’s what we see:
After the first large Canadian Experience Class draw in months (on June 12, inviting 3,000 candidates), the candidate pool for Express Entry dropped for the first time since March 2025.
That same draw resulted in the 501-600 range of the Express Entry pool dropping from 25,053 on June 11 to 22,947 on June 22. A difference of 2,106 candidates.
We had thought that the June 26 draw would also result in a similar drop in the Express Entry pool. But that’s not what happened.
Instead, the pool data from July 6, shows that the 501-600 range decreased by just 356 candidates. The total number of candidates in the pool within that score range currently sits at around 22,591.
It’s worth noting that a CEC-specific draw took place on July 8, but no updated pool distribution data has been released since that draw.
This means that, on average, 81 candidates entered the Express Entry pool 501-600 range between June 11 and June 22. On the other hand, 188 candidates entered the 501-600 range between June 22 and July 6.
That’s nearly 200 new high-scoring profiles entering every day.
What does that mean for future CRS cut-offs?
We ran the numbers and modeled three different CRS forecast scenarios based on daily pool growth, AND assuming we see regular CEC draws (every other week), inviting 3,000 candidates. Here’s what we see:
If 80 people/day enter the 501–600 range → we may see CRS cut-offs around 495+
If 150 people/day enter → scores may hold at 510+
If 220 people/day enter → we'd be surprised to see it drop below 515
What can you do with this information?
Since you cannot control how many people enter the pool at any given time or their scores, it’s best to focus on what you can control – your own CRS.
At this point, the low-hanging fruit are:
Maxxing out your language scores.
Consider completing some additional education, if it will improve your score.
Moving into an occupation that may be eligible for category-based draws (learn more on occupations with low barriers to entry here).
We recommend playing around with our new and improved CRS calculator to see what impact some realistic changes could have on your CRS score.
Run realistic scenarios and see what changes could give you a competitive edge.
It’s fast. Free. And might just be the game-changer you need.
Rebecca and Stephanie
The Moving2Canada Team!
