Category-Based Express Entry Draws: What the Numbers Say About Your Chances if You’re Outside Canada

Keep reading to get our full breakdown of the top provinces in each category – and how that can guide your next steps

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Not all categories are equally accessible to candidates abroad; some are heavily tilted towards applicants already in Canada.

The numbers reviewed assume that applicants selected through General, Canadian Experience Class (CEC) or Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) draws were in Canada, which is aligned with current program priorities (and high CRS cut-offs).

Here’s what the 2024 data shows:

In 2024, most French speakers received their ITA through a category-based draw over any other draw type, and they faced little competition from applicants already in Canada.

French remains one of the strongest and most reliable categories if you’re applying from abroad. Even if you qualify for other categories, unless you have a very high CRS score, adding French to your profile can significantly improve your chances. 

This data suggests that just over half (51%) of all healthcare category-based ITAs went to applicants outside Canada, giving overseas candidates a slight edge compared to in-Canada applicants. 

Healthcare remains a strong pathway for those abroad, with steady demand across multiple provinces. If you meet licensing and experience requirements, your chances are competitive if you have a good CRS score. You’ll still face substantial competition from in-Canada applicants, but focus on increasing your CRS score wherever you can. 

Nearly 78% of all STEM category-based ITAs went to applicants outside Canada, indicating stronger profiles abroad than among in-Canada candidates. However, it’s worth noting that the only STEM draw in 2024 took place just one day after a smaller general draw, which may have pulled some in-Canada STEM candidates out of the pool. 

At first glance, this looks like great news for outland STEM applicants, but dig a little deeper, and the picture changes. 

While overseas STEM applicants are highly competitive, category-based draws for this group have been rare, only one in 2024 and none so far in 2025. Despite that, IRCC still issued just under 14,000 ITAs to STEM-eligible candidates in 2024. This suggests IRCC may have preferred using general draws with high CRS cut-offs to target STEM workers already in Canada, rather than holding STEM-specific draws that would also capture more overseas candidates.

If this approach continues, it will be worth looking out for how many STEM workers receive ITAs through CEC draws in 2025. Either way, this likely goes a long way toward explaining the absence of STEM category draws. 

With only 150 category-based ITAs issued for this occupation, but 221 issued to overseas candidates, many of the overseas candidates likely received invitations through PNP or CEC streams, possibly after having lived or worked in Canada before. 

While a majority of invitations went to candidates outside Canada, the overall volume is very small. Unless you have a strong provincial connection or prior work experience in Canada, this category alone may not offer a reliable pathway. 

Trades are one of the least accessible categories from abroad. The low share of overseas invitations is largely due to CRS scoring — many foreign-trained tradespeople struggle with credential recognition, while in-Canada candidates can offset this with Canadian work experience or education. 

Note: We have not reviewed the Transport category as it is no longer a 2025 category.

While this article focuses on which categories work best for overseas applicants, the data also highlights areas where in-Canada candidates have a clear advantage and untapped opportunities. 

One standout example is French-language proficiency. In 2024, many in-Canada candidates did not pursue French-language draws. This gap presents a major opportunity for Canadian Experience Class (CEC) applicants waiting for a draw. By learning French and qualifying for the French-language proficiency category, you could secure an ITA with less competition from other in-Canada applicants. 

STEM is another case to consider. The lack of STEM-specific draws in 2024 and 2025 might feel discouraging, but in-Canada STEM workers are still receiving ITAs — they’re just being selected through other draw types rather than STEM-targeted rounds. 

For in-Canada candidates, the key takeaway is to think beyond your current occupational category pathway.  

The province or territory of interest is what applicants list in their Express Entry profile as their intended destination. It’s not the province where they necessarily end up. This distinction is important because it changes how we interpret the data. Instead of showing where invitations were sent, it tells us where candidates want to go, which can reflect: 

For outland applicants, understanding these patterns can help you align your Express Entry profile and job search in provinces that are actively attracting talent in your category. 

So let’s review the 2024 numbers: 

The high level of interest from French-speaking Express Entry candidates in New Brunswick is not surprising, given the province’s strong francophone communities, official bilingual status, and targeted immigration programs (currently paused) for French speakers. 

This suggests Ontario, Alberta, and BC remain the most attractive destinations for healthcare workers – likely due to large healthcare systems and a higher demand for healthcare workers.

These three provinces dominate STEM interest – likely tied to tech hubs (Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary/Edmonton) and provincial tech-focused immigration streams. 

Agriculture draws interest in provinces with strong agri-business sectors, but numbers remain small compared to other categories. 

The heavy Ontario focus in the trades category may reflect both the province’s large job market and its active Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) pathways for skilled trades. In 2024, Ontario issued 9,006 ITAs through its Express Entry: Skilled Trades Stream, highlighting its commitment to attracting workers in construction, manufacturing, and related fields. However, there have been no such draws so far in 2025. 

We’ll keep you updated as soon as IRCC releases data on 2025 category-based draws, so you can see how the trends are shifting and adjust your strategy.