Hi there,
We're now into the second half of 2025. Let's take a look at what happened in the first half, and what lessons we can take from it.
Whether you're already in the pool or preparing to enter, understanding these patterns can help you plan strategically and position yourself for what's next.
First Half of 2025: A Shift in Strategy
The first six months of 2025 marked a significant shift in Canada's immigration approach, which is evident in the draws we have seen as well as their frequency.
The First Half in Numbers:
Number of Draws: 23
Number of ITAs issued: 41,845
Broken into categories:
Canadian Experience Class: 15,850
Provincial Nominee Program: 5,495
Category-based draws: 20,500:
18,500 under the French language proficiency category
1,000 under the Healthcare and social services occupation category
1,000 under the Education occupation category
What We Have Seen So Far in 2025
Here are the top Express Entry trends we have seen so far this year in 2025:
Decreased draw sizes: Fewer invitations to apply (ITAs) have been issued compared to last year.
Maintained high CRS cut-off scores: Making the competition stiffer for candidates.
Prioritised category-based selections: So far, the majority of ITAs have been issued through category-based draws, with French-speaking applicants receiving the lion’s share of invitations.
An extended pause in CEC draws: Much to everyone's disappointment, the first half of 2025 saw a 3-month hiatus on CEC draws from February 5 to May 13.
A move away from PNPs: In line with the slashed immigration levels plan for 2025, PNP draws have been frequent but small in size reflecting the diminishing pool of PNP eligible applicants.
A new occupation targeted: The education category was added to the list of targeted categories – to date, we have seen one draw targeting Education occupations.
What We Have Not Seen So Far in 2025
Here are some things we have not yet seen this year:
An in-Canada Focus: The immigration levels plan promised an in-Canada focus. With limited CEC draws in both size and volume, we are yet to see this in-Canada focus
General/ All program Draws: Unlike earlier years where general draws, inviting candidates from any Express Entry program with high CRS scores, were a staple, 2025 has not seen a single general/all-program draw to date.
Variety in category-based draws: While most ITAs this year have come from category-based draws, nearly 90% went to French-speaking candidates. Other occupations haven’t been meaningfully targeted.
Looking Ahead: What to Expect in the Second Half of 2025
Given the trends, we can anticipate:
Continued emphasis on category-based draws: We will likely see at least one healthcare and education draw, we are less optimistic about seeing a trades draw.
French-language proficiency draws will continue to dominate category-based draws: We expect to see a few more draws targeting French speakers, but not at the same volume as the first half. Based on 2024 draw volumes and the 2025 Immigration Levels Plan, we expect between 5,000 and 10,000 more ITAs to be issued to French speakers.
Sustained high CRS cut-off scores: CRS cut-offs will remain high due to reduced draw sizes and a focus on specific categories.
No STEM, Agriculture or Transport draws: So far this year, IRCC have stayed true to only selecting occupations prioritised in the immigration levels plan. We think this will continue.
No general/all program draws: We do not think we will see any general/all program draws.
How You Can Boost Your Chances of Receiving an ITA
Here are just some of the things you can do to improve your chances of getting an ITA in 2025/ early 2026:
Improve your French language skills: Demonstrating French proficiency could increase your chances of being invited in targeted draws (though scores may not drop as low as they did in the early draws in 2025).
Think strategically about work experience: When planning your next steps, there are a few strategic paths to consider when it comes to gaining more work experience. You’ll need to decide whether it’s more beneficial to:
Gain additional Canadian work experience to get extra CRS points for Canadian experience.
Work remotely for a foreign employer, which could give you additional CRS points under foreign work experience.
We don’t recommend doing both at once — choose one approach based on what will strengthen your Express Entry profile most effectively.
Your decision will depend on your unique situation, including your current CRS score, work history, and future goals. Use our CRS calculator to compare both scenarios and see which one gives you the best boost.
Use your time wisely: You could also consider gaining 6 months of work experience in an occupation that may be targeted in category-based Express Entry draws. However, this is a bit of a gamble – we can’t predict which occupations will be prioritized in future draws.
In our view, a more reliable investment of your time might be to spend those 6 months learning French. Adding French as a second official language can significantly increase your CRS score and open more immigration pathways.
Make Sure Your Profile Is ITA-Ready
Download our RCIC-approved guide: How to Create an Express Entry Profile.
Whether you’re just getting started or already sitting in the Express Entry pool, this free resource can help make sure your profile is optimized and ITA-ready.
We’ll continue to keep you in the loop with the latest Express Entry draw trends, updates, tips, and opportunities to help you stay ahead.
Until then, stay proactive, and don’t miss any opportunity to strengthen your profile.
All the best,
Rebecca and Stephanie.
The Moving2Canada Team!